I hope my letter finds you well. I last wrote to you on 18th December 2014 with some suggestions for your presidency Since that last letter, things have gotten worse politically and economically in Zambia. I hope you can take into consideration the following further advice from a concerned citizen because desperate times call for bold, decisive action.
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I wish to express my deep sympathies with the predicament you are in Sir. You have inherited a poisoned chalice. A nation in a mess that is reeling from the from high cost of living, an escalating debt burden, corruption, poverty, a litany of broken promises, a delayed constitution process, a labour movement about to stage mass demonstrations, a culture of political intolerance, violence among cadres, total confusion politically, and many other things too numerous to mention.
Last week, the Movement for Multiparty Democracy National Secretary Muhabi Lungu announced that the National Executive Committee voted to suspend its President Nevers Mumba and adopted former President Rupiah Banda as the MMD candidate for the 20th January 2015 presidential by-election. The Rupiah Banda supporters say that it is his democratic right to contest to be the MMD presidential candidate. The Nevers Mumba supporters argue that Banda's time is past.
Every political party uses (and misuses) the results of By-Elections to prove they are getting more popular or that another party is losing ground. Do By-Elections have any predictive value? Are they a reliable indicator of the way things are unfolding on the ground? What else can the results show? This analysis looks at the 33 By-Elections between January 2007 and April 2014.
Some of the feedback I received after making an election forecast in Part Three suggests that I was too "harsh" on the UPND. Many people believe that UPND is increasing in popularity at a very rapid rate that my forecast did not capture. My forecast gives UPND a 7% increase from their last result and gives them two new provinces (Western and North-Western). They even get a seat and increase their tally by 6% in Lusaka.
President Michael Sata’s Patriotic Front (PF) government is increasingly becoming deeply unpopular for various reasons I cannot fully delve into, suffice to say that escalating commodity prices, broken promises, perceived tribalism, worsening governance record, poor economic decisions and alleged corruption are among the main ones.